Open Access – Danger at the Bottom Line

$2,595.00

Author: Jo McShea

Date: November 2, 2018

Description

Open access (OA) has long been considered an existential threat to the traditional business model of subscription journal publishers, especially in the Scientific, Technical, and Medical (STM) sector. Now firmly entrenched across STM, both its ability to ultimately overturn and replace the traditional subscription model and the likelihood of this happening remain topics of heated debate in the sector. We see a number of market factors with the potential to significantly impact the direction of the OA market in the next five years. These include the actions of funders in this sector with regard to current and future OA mandates and centralized funding of Article Processing Charges (APCs), the number of high-profile Big Deal negotiations placing OA at their centers, and the increasing maturity of infrastructure in place at publishers, institutions, and funders to deal with OA challenges. At the same time, this is a nuanced, regional marketplace without significant researcher-driven momentum, and our model considers these and other potential inhibitors of the future growth of the OA market as well as the drivers for its growth.

With this report, our latest on OA, Outsell models the potential revenue implications of OA on the STM journal publishing sector, presenting our forecast for 2020. We then highlight a range of potential scenarios for the market in 2023, depending on different growth levels for OA articles as a proportion of the overall total of new STM journal articles.

 

Table of Contents

Why This Topic 3

Methodology 3

Open Access Today 4

Market Forces Influencing Open Access 7

Open Access in 2020 12

Open Access in 2023 14

In Outsell’s Opinion 20

Essential Actions 23

Related Research 25

Appendix 26

About the Author 27

About Outsell 27

 

List of Figures

Figure 1: Open Access Market Size, 2017 ($m) 6

Figure 2: Number of New STM Articles Published by Revenue Model, 2017 7

Figure 3: Open Access Market Size, 2020 ($ million) 13

Figure 4: Number of New STM Articles Published by Revenue Model, 2020 14

 

List of Tables

Table 1: Key Market Growth Factors and Their Ability to Influence the OA Landscape by 2023 8

Table 2: STM Journal Market Landscape by OA Growth Scenario, 2023 17

Table 3: Impact of 2023 Growth Scenarios on Bottom Line 19

Table 4: Impact of 2023 Scenarios on Organizational Bottom Line, Reduced Margins 20

Additional information

Analyst

Reviews

There are no reviews yet.

Be the first to review “Open Access – Danger at the Bottom Line”

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Post comment